Annual bummed about Bonneville passage thread

Discussion in 'Steelhead' started by Klickrolf, May 6, 2013.

  1. Klickrolf Active Member

    Posts: 605
    Klickitat, Washington
    Ratings: +168 / 0
  2. hydrological beads are NOT flies and snagging is just ghetto

    Posts: 563
    inland
    Ratings: +111 / 0
    i'm no expert on interpreting the counts, but isnt it a bit early to be worried ? like the naysayers here in montana that worried about the low snowpack in march ? we are now about 100%
  3. JS Active Member

    Posts: 868
    Ratings: +55 / 0
    The forcast was not great, but it is still a little early to tell how bad it is going to be. It is going to be bad. That is almost certain.
  4. Rob Allen Active Member

    Posts: 1,013
    Vancouver WA
    Ratings: +404 / 0
    if we do not do the work to have good fish runs how can we possibly expect to have good fish runs? near as I can tell we are still logging the heck our of our watersheds we are still over planting nearly every river in the state and we are still harvesting as many of them as we can before they are able to reproduce.

    without question i would say that we here in the northwest do not deserve better fish runs..
    hydrological and JS like this.
  5. Evan Burck Fudge Dragon

    Posts: 6,511
    Duvall, wa
    Ratings: +1,712 / 2
    I don't usually judge until mid June. A lot can change.
  6. Evan Burck Fudge Dragon

    Posts: 6,511
    Duvall, wa
    Ratings: +1,712 / 2
    Look at 2010.. the early part of the run was ridiculous. people were saying we'd top over a million fish. Then it died off around August, and we had a substantially smaller run than 2009 (record year), which started off slower.
  7. Upton O Blind hog fisherman

    Posts: 2,171
    out of state now
    Ratings: +221 / 0
    "It ain't over 'til it's over." Predicting fish movement is an educated guess at best, you never know what you're going to get until you get it.
  8. constructeur Active Member

    Posts: 1,520
    Seattle, Wa
    Ratings: +412 / 0
    Fish or no fish we're going to get out, camp with the family, go to sleep to the stars and wake up to the sounds of the river. Beers with pals, all that jazz.

    I'm not one to worry about the fish count I guess.
  9. hydrological beads are NOT flies and snagging is just ghetto

    Posts: 563
    inland
    Ratings: +111 / 0
    hopefully angler numbers will be down in most places like they were last year.
    i'll happily fish for half the numbers, if i only see 1/4 the crowds.
    but i'd really rather have my cake and eat it too.
    rwbailey05 likes this.
  10. David Dalan 69°19'15.35" N 18°44'22.74" E

    Posts: 2,007
    Walla Walla, WA
    Ratings: +788 / 0
    People crack me up. I heard folks bitching about low steelhead numbers above LWG last year. There were more steelfaces over the dam last year than the whole time I was in college (like 20,000 more) and the fishing was always good. Fishermen just like to bitch, methinks. :D
    Davy and bennysbuddy like this.
  11. Smalma Active Member

    Posts: 2,842
    Marysville, Washington
    Ratings: +722 / 0
    In looking at the historic count curves over Bonneville I doubt that one could make any reasonable assessment of the steelhead runs strength until late July. Until there is a significant portion of run is over the dam it is hard to know whether the counts are a true reflection of the run strength or just shifts in the timing of the early part of the run.

    That doesn't mean that it still isn't interesting to watch the run develop and "dream" or plan for the coming fishing trips.

    Curt
    constructeur likes this.
  12. Phil Fravel Friendly

    Posts: 652
    Bonney Lake
    Ratings: +96 / 0
    check out the Willamette Falls passage. It looks to be on track with the 10 year average or a bit above. Come on We have to be optimist to chase them anyway
  13. hydrological beads are NOT flies and snagging is just ghetto

    Posts: 563
    inland
    Ratings: +111 / 0
    optomistic is good. i find being delusional helps too. i'm sure with every swing i'm showing my fly to a player :rolleyes:
  14. _WW_ Fishes with Wolves

    Posts: 1,942
    Skagit River
    Ratings: +675 / 0
    I don't see how you can determine anything. When I click on that link all I get is this:
  15. Jmills81 The Dude Abides

    Posts: 1,909
    Spokane, WA
    Ratings: +151 / 0
    they're happily still swimming in the ocean right now, most of them at least
    Blake Harmon likes this.
  16. Klickrolf Active Member

    Posts: 605
    Klickitat, Washington
    Ratings: +168 / 0
    It's updated daily so that one is out of date. Here's the link,
    http://www.cbr.washington.edu/dart/query/adult_daily
    this one is always good. You can select the dam, the date, year etc. I like to see the 10YearAvg so I always check that box and scroll immediately to the bottom for totals and comparisons.
  17. Davy Active Member

    Posts: 2,021
    SIlverton, OR
    Ratings: +16 / 0
    yeah that
  18. docstash Member

    Posts: 343
    selah, wa.
    Ratings: +22 / 0
    If we had a 50% increase in this years count over Bonneville as of today we would still be about 20% lower that the counts last year, that fizzled right around this time, and the 10 year average counts. Is it too early, sure, but it is all we have to use as a measurement. Take into consideration that last years count was the lowest this century. Same with the Snake river system, last year was the lowest this century. Upper Columbia above Priest Rapids last year beat 2006, 7, 8 and they opened The Methow and Wenatchee for hatchery how long this last year? The 10% of anglers that catch 90% of the fish will barely notice a difference, the 90% of anglers will notice.

    Craig
    JesseCFowl likes this.
  19. inland Active Member

    Posts: 600
    .
    Ratings: +50 / 0
    Almost to June and 6 or 7 out of 10 years you will have an idea on where the SH run is going to end up by this time. A lot can and will still happen which makes these doom-n-gloom or rock-n-roll predictions nothing but talking points...but just like last year...people had a hundred excuses why the fish weren't there by mid July when every indicator pointed to a big drop in numbers...then mid August...and finally one had to admit they weren't coming. It had fuck all to do with the warm water as every year has too warm of water now. The problems are the same today as they were 20 years ago as they were 50 years ago. Dams, spawning habitat alteration and 2 billion too many hatchery plants. Except one thing...the climate is drier and warmer as a whole now for the basin. Adding a new stress to the terribly complex natural system.

    If these fish don't start showing up near the 10 year average daily count in two weeks...the reality that this year isn't going to be 2009 or 2001 and all of those monster years in-between (plus a couple past that) better start to sink in. Think BC fishing M-TH or F, plus hoping your truck or watermaster isn't vandalized to keep you away from the lodge clients.

    I hear walleye and carp and bass are doing well in the impoundments...much better quarry than SH anyway...besides who wants to fish for SH in the desert?
  20. Slipstream Active Member

    Posts: 373
    Goldendale, WA
    Ratings: +27 / 0
    Rolf, Take two aspirin and call me in the morning! tom