2013 North of Falcon

Discussion in 'Saltwater' started by DimeBrite, Feb 26, 2013.

  1. DimeBrite

    DimeBrite MA-9 Beach Stalker

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    On Friday we find out how many salmon may or may not be entering Puget Sound this summer. The accuracy of these forecasts is not great, but it always makes for an interesting conversation in winter. There could be swarms of pinks again, but will the silvers show up big? At the very least we know that the resident coho fishing will be average this year, with some bigger than normal fish available.


    2013 North of Falcon Public Meeting Schedule March 1
    2013 Salmon Forecasts and Fishing Opportunities:​
    • 9 a.m.-3 p.m., Room 172 of the Natural Resources Building, 1111 Washington St. S.E. Olympia.
    • WDFW presents Puget Sound, coastal Washington and Columbia River salmon abundance forecasts. Fishery management objectives and preliminary fishing opportunities for 2013 are discussed.
     
  2. Nick Clayton

    Nick Clayton Active Member

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    I'm getting so pumped for salmon this summer! It's about time to start tying clousers. Can't wait!
     
  3. Stonefish

    Stonefish Triploid, Humpy & Seaplane Hater

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    Tim,
    Thanks for the info.
    I think silver fishing should be pretty good this summer.
    While last year offered great coho numbers, I didn't see a lot of big fish hit the beach.
    Based on what I've observed over the past dozen years or so the coho are larger in size on the odd years. I'd love to see a repeat of 2001.
     
  4. Nick Clayton

    Nick Clayton Active Member

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    Good point, Brian. Thinking back on it, I guess I never did see too many big fish come to the beach in my neck of the woods. I heard of a 15 lb fish landed by a gear guy, and an 11-12 lb fish taken by a fly gal, but that was pretty much it for over 10 lb fish that I heard about. Would love to tie into one of those big fish on the beach some day. Those 5-8 lb fish are a blast, I can only imagine what a 12lb + fish would do.
     
  5. Jason Rolfe

    Jason Rolfe Wanderer

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    I was just thinking the same thing the other day. Figure I'll get all my tying done now so I don't have to scramble at 11 pm trying to tie flies before I wake up at 5 am to hit the beach!

    So stoked for this summer! Can't wait to see you all out there.

    Jason
     
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  6. Stonefish

    Stonefish Triploid, Humpy & Seaplane Hater

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    Just make sure you have some plan "B" beaches for this summer. Some of the more usual popular haunts will be jammed pack with people.
    They won't be very flyfishing friendly with a couple hundred people packed onto the beach.
     
  7. Harry Richardson

    Harry Richardson New Member

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    As far as tying up clousers for summer salmon here, what size and colors are good??
     
  8. Jason Rolfe

    Jason Rolfe Wanderer

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    Probably the most popular go to, from what I've seen, is a chartreuse over pink clouser minnow, tied with a stinger hook, around 3 inches long.

    I started adding a couple strips of peacock herl down each side, and after about a month of catching no fish on the peacock-less version, I got five fish to hand in about 7 or 8 days of fishing. I'm not necessarily saying that the peacock had anything to do with it, but after hooking a fish my first time out with that tie, it certainly boosted my confidence.

    Another thing I've noticed that I think is pretty cool is that everyone seems to have their own take on that basic pattern. Kind of interesting to see how people get creative with it.

    Jason
     
  9. Stonefish

    Stonefish Triploid, Humpy & Seaplane Hater

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    As Jason noted, chartreuse over pink works well. Other combos that I've found effective are chartreuse, pink, orange or olive over white or light gray.
    I also like solid colors, pink, orange, chartreuse and white.
    2' -3' long depending on the bait. Make sure to tie some with stingers since that will help with short bites.
    Good luck,
    SF
     
  10. DimeBrite

    DimeBrite MA-9 Beach Stalker

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    Oh yeah, the stinger clousers are very important on those days when the silvers are nipping at the fly. I like chartreuse over white clousers, but the chartreuse over hot pink clouser is a champ too. Pink over white clouser is very productive and keeps the humpies happy. Brian is a master of clouser colors.

    Some beaches will be crowded (due to the pink run) but you can take advantage of that sometimes. It's a good idea to fish very close to friendly buzz bombers when the salmon are out of fly casting range, so you can pick off some of the fish following their buzz bombs into the beach.

    It should be a fun season.
     
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  11. Jim Wallace

    Jim Wallace Smells like low tide.

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    When is this run expected? I need to plan for an extended backcountry expedition.:D
     
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  12. Stonefish

    Stonefish Triploid, Humpy & Seaplane Hater

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    Just drive by the parking lots. If they are overflowing and you see eight people piling out of a mini van with yellow rods (aka yeller poles), it is game on!
     
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  13. Jim Wallace

    Jim Wallace Smells like low tide.

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    Thanks for the run timing prediction, SF. Perhaps I can find a link to some relevant satellite parking lot fill-rate analysis data on these here interwebz. Otherwise, the Sound is too far for drive-by look-sees.
    No worry. I'll be too busy right here in my local corner of the pond chasing Kings, SRCs, surf, and bottom-fish. That's if I'm not up somewhere in the back country with a 3 wt.
     
  14. DimeBrite

    DimeBrite MA-9 Beach Stalker

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    The 2013 projected silver numbers (in bold) as reported by The Outdoor Line from the North of Falcon Meeting (sorry for the formatting issue):

    The Silver Story! 2012 Preseason Adult Coho Forecasts (in thousands of fish)

    Stock 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
    Straits Wild 20.5 8.5 12.3 12.3 14.8
    Straits Hatch 7.0 7.8 12.7 18.6 15.4
    Nook/Sam W 7.0 9.6 29.5 25.2 45.4
    Nook/Sam H 25.5 36.0 45.7 62.8 49.2
    Skagit Wild 33.4 95.9 138.1 48.3 137.2
    Skagit Hatch 11.7 9.5 16.2 14.9 16.3
    Stilly Wild 13.4 25.9 66.5 45.5 33.1
    Stilly hatch 0.0 5.4 0.6 4.1 3.1
    Snohomish W 67.0 99.4 180.0 109.0 163.8
    Snohomish H 53.6 24.5 8.4 8.5 109.0
    S Sound W 53.6 25.3 98.9 43.1 36.0
    S Sound H 188.8 186.4 173.3 162.9 150.9
    Hood Wild 48.6 33.2 77.5 73.4 36.8
    Hood Hatch 52.0 51.2 72.1 62.6 68.6

    Key stocks Total 338,600 320,800 916,000 628,600 623,300

    For those of us who fish MA-9 beaches it is very encouraging to see the high projected returns for wild Skagit coho and both hatchery & wild Snohomish coho. Wild Skagit silvers pull hard!

    Let's hope reality is close to these numbers if not better.
     
  15. Jason Rolfe

    Jason Rolfe Wanderer

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    Dimebrite,

    Thanks for posting that. Really interesting to see the change year to year.

    Does anyone have a sense of how accurate these predictions are, on average? Just curious.

    Jason